Do Canadians Want A Majority, Or Just Stability?

A new Harris-Decima survey seems to indicate that Canadians tire of the long-standing stalemate in Ottawa, and long for a majority government. 64% of respondents would prefer a majority government over a minority one, up from 52% recorded in a similar survey in 2007. As the Harris-Decima poll concludes, Canadians who might initially have believed that a minority government would create cooperation between parties have instead been treated to four years of the rankest bitterness and petty squabbling. The constant election threats, posturing, and showdowns over minor policies, such as Employment Insurance reform, has given people the desire for one ruling party:

The pollsters gave respondents four scenarios to ponder: A Liberal majority or minority, or a Conservative majority or minority.

The Liberals came out on top in both respects — with 30 per cent preferring a Liberal majority, and 14 per cent a Liberal minority, as compared to the 24 per cent who backed a Conservative majority and nine per cent who wanted a Conservative minority.

Walker said the results are an indication that the Liberals are the second choice for a majority of Canadian voters, and that could be a significant factor in the next election.

I still don’t see the results of this poll changing the events on the ground; that is, there continues to be a stalemate in the polls, and opinion isn’t likely to shift either way for quite some time. I don’t believe either party has shown that they deserve a majority mandate either, although to be quite honest I would be very curious to see whether the Conservatives would begin to make some genuine conservative policy under a majority mandate.

Is it a majority government that Canadians want to see, or just something that better resembles stability? If Canadian politics wasn’t so hard-wired toward confrontation on every little issue, or if each policy wasn’t challenged as some kind of threat to Canada, more might actually get accomplished. While I understand it is the obligation of the opposition to hold the government to task, it seems to me that a more cooperative approach would be possible if they did not seem to oppose every suggestion made by the government.

Another surprise from the Harris-Decima survey is that 45% if Canadians would support the idea of a coalition government after the next election. Although some people see a coalition government of the Liberals, NDP and Bloc as a desperate grab for power, I think that it’s also a reflection of the genuine frustration with the current ineffectiveness of our government. Perhaps some people think that a coalition would be just what is needed to let one side rule undeterred for a while, a view that is backed up by the fact that the Conservatives have been seen as the sole party that opposes the fragmented leftwing voter bloc. And here’s another thought. Although the Conservatives could win another election against Michael Ignatieff, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Liberals came very close to restoring all their seats they lost since 2006. If that’s the case, the possibility of a deal being hatched between the Liberals and NDP or the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois is a very serious one indeed.

Related

Joanne has a thread on this topic as well that is worth reading.

Raise Taxes Or Cut Spending. Is There An Echo In Here?

The Conference Board of Canada announced today that the provinces need to cut their spending or else raise taxes in order to balance their budget deficits. The Board said that the federal government is in a “sound fiscal position” and can be expected to balance its books as the economy recovers from temporary stimulus measures. It’s a contrast from the conclusion of Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page, who last week said that the federal government is facing permanent structural deficits beyond five years if it doesn’t either raise taxes, or else cut spending. Prime Minister Harper said that was “dumb”, and refused to commit to either scenario.

The reason the Conference Board believes that the fiscal solutions lie at the provincial level is because the provinces are required to match federal infrastructure spending in order to receive federal stimulus contributions, while continuing to pay for the ordinary programs and services run by the province:

“The implication is that, sooner or later, provinces will have to boost taxes or cut spending in order to return to a balanced budget.”

The board is forecasting that the Canadian economy will begin to grow in the second half of the year, but not enough to offset the decline in the first half.

The result: real gross domestic product will fall by 1.9 per cent in 2009 and grow a weak 2.7 per cent in 2010.

The 2010 growth will be based on the government’s infrastructure spending and a recovery in resource prices and exports.

This is the most optimistic outside prediction to date, although it’s close to the International Monetary Fund’s prediction of a 2.3% contraction in 2009 and a rebound of 1.6% in 2010. The 2009 federal budget released by the government called for a one-year contraction of real GDP of 1%.

In comparison to PBO Kevin Page, these estimates are a veritable rose garden. His forecasts call for a gloomy $156-billion cumulative budget deficits for five years with high job losses. The report said that 100,000 jobs will be lost this year on top of the current 360,000 since last October. Still, Mr.Page’s predictions aren’t the most pessimistic, as TD Bank projected a $172-billion deficit over the five year term back in June, a prediction that met with similar skepticism. What it did accomplish, however, was to cast doubt on the assumptions laid out in Mr.Flaherty’s January budget.

There are concerns that non-partisan PBO Kevin Page could be used for partisan advantage, and this fear was somewhat validated last week when the Liberals violated their own embargo rule on Mr.Page’s report. Following the loss of the Employment Insurance showdown with Stephen Harper, the Liberals are searching for a galvanizing issue to fight the Conservatives on. By leaking the numbers of the PBO report early, the Liberals knew they would get the jump on the poor publicity.

Michael Ignatieff’s office leaked the PBO forecast to media even after Liberal Finance Critic John McCallum had asked for the two-day embargo himself, and Mr.Page had been ordered three weeks ago not to release any more predictions to the general public until given Parliamentary approval. But the Liberals went ahead and leaked the report on Monday, complete with annotations by Mr.McCallum which point to “the dishonesty of the government on fiscal numbers”. This certainly compromises the position of Kevin Page, who needs to maintain his reputation as a non-partisan analyst of the budget forecasts. Allowing the Liberals to leak this information to the media prematurely only undermines the legitimacy of his office.