
Photo: Globe and Mail
There’s no denying that the chances of the Liberals succeeding in electing a minority government are slightly better than even. A recent Ekos poll showed that the Grits have pulled to within a five point lead federally, and it coincides well with Michael Ignatieff’s current political gambit in Ottawa. After the Conservatives released their economic “report card” last Thursday, the Liberal leader indicated he would need to mull over whether he would support it until Friday. The following day led to rampant speculation about another possible election, but Mr.Ignatieff said he would delay any decision until Monday. Then the weekend passed, and today Mr.Ignatieff appeared to demand a series of conditions for support of the economic report which faces a no-confidence vote on Friday.
It’s clear that the Liberals are angling at something. But what? The stimulus from the budget is finally being pried loose from Ottawa after months of sitting around waiting for Parliamentary approval. The government has already indicated there have been changes to Employment Insurance, and even now Stephen Harper has suggested he is open to changing eligibility for self-employed Canadians. Surely the Liberals can’t be serious when they say that the isotope shortage, while certainly an important medical conundrum, is worthy of toppling the government over?
I fail to understand how the changes to eligibility for employment insurance is really worth fighting an election on either. The program can’t possibly be seen as a legitimate stop-gap measure for families suddenly without an income. Payouts are generally calculated at 55% of income, and maximized at around $447 per week. In today’s market, that’s practically welfare. And how do changes to eligibility help the already hundreds of thousands of Canadians out of work now? By delaying the stimulus funding and fighting an election that costs $300 million? Is that how it’ll help them?
No, the only calculable reasons the Liberals would be willing to gamble with the economy at this time is their insatiable thirst for governance. Because Stephen Harper is seen as finally being weak, the party stumbling in the polls, the deficit projections in the news, there are those in the Liberal war room who see it as a political advantage. They are entirely willing to roll the dice at this critical juncture for the opportunity of a tiny minority government, even if it means they throw Canada’s current silver linings in the economy under the bus. Could the ruthless ambition of Michael Ignatieff’s ascendancy to the PMO really be worth what would undoubtedly be a record low voter turnout, as apathetic Canadians deliver the Liberals into the halls of power in order to “standardize Employment Insurance”? This is our raison d’etre?
“I am responsible to millions of Canadians, what they expect of me is to do my job properly … We’re not going to keep people hanging around. We’ll make a decision and it will be clear: Up or down.” Michael Ignatieff, Thursday, June 11, Montreal
There is, of course, another reason to force an election. A coalition if necessary, but not necessarily a coalition. The opposition parties have already indicated they are going to vote down the economic report, which gives the Liberals a chance to finally topple this government. The enduring shame of Stephane Dion is that he never did wind up opposing the government; Stephen Harper broke his own fixed election date law in order to topple his government when he saw the political opportunity as being ripe. Mr.Ignatieff has the chance to put some teeth to his party, and enter the election with the same contingency plan it had the last time. If the Liberals win, they can pass most of their policies with the assistance of the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP. But if they lose, and particularly if they lose a close race that restores the seats the Liberals lost under Dion, they have a far stronger coalition government to wrest power from the Conservatives, and force the kind of stimulus plan down the throats of Canadians that, apparently, we all really want.



















