Tossing And Turning

You may take that title to be as literal or figurative as you like, but as I lay in bed thinking about the events of the past few days I just had to pound out one more thought on the keyboard. It’s funny because a while back somebody said I can’t possibly have a full-time job and a wife and two children because I “blog at all hours of the day and night”. I can see how it might seem that way to readers from Eastern Canada. My posts are probably written long after they’re sawing logs, and I can’t read their responses until I get home from work at 4:30 or 5:00pm Western time the next day, so by the time I start composing my thoughts again for new posts or responses it’s getting late in the East. Because I have a job that is in no way related to technology, I have to go 10 hours without any idea what’s happening in the world until I get home. But eschewing much-needed sleep for blogging, I just had to get this out.

I wanted to be as fair and balanced as possible in judging this “coalition government” situation. When I first heard about it I was definitely shocked, and that shock has only intensified in recent days as more revelations come to light about what could be coming down the pipe. And what it really boils down to is frightening for Western Canadians. Yes, I’m a transplanted Easterner, so I’m not pretending to speak for the West, but rather to the electoral results of October 14. In it Canada voted for a stronger Conservative minority mandate, and came close to a Conservative majority [and quite possibly could have done so if not for Danny Williams and the talk about arts funding cuts in Quebec].

As this blogger points out, “a mere 7 Liberals were elected west of Ontario, along with 14 NDP, while 71 Conservative MPs got the nod”. This means that the strongest voice for the Conservatives came from energy-rich Western Canada, the more recession-resistant provinces. With this talk of forming a coalition government, there’s a strong possibility that the Eastern provinces will use their new-found power to fund programs to help themselves. And that is really pissing some people off.

Beyond only that, I have begun to rethink the constitutionality of this coalition government. At first I thought that perhaps it was fair play to join together all the opposing parties to form a government, since there appears to be no specific rules against it. Certainly I thought, as I continue to feel, that it’s rash, desperate, and supremely unwarranted given the concessions the Conservatives have made since their economic update, but I did think it was legitimate. But as I lie awake in bed I am really changing my thinking. After all, it’s true that the people of Canada didn’t elect the Conservatives to a majority mandate, but neither did they vote to elect this coalition party to a majority mandate.

But that is exactly what they will get.

This seems obvious to anyone who has been paying attention in the last few days, but I’m not sure this has been widely discussed in the media. This government would be a majority government that has not been granted a majority mandate by the people of Canada. In that sense it is entirely undemocratic, and by that rationale, I can entirely understand the reasons people are more upset than I was. After all, this government could pass any and all legislation they wanted with impunity, since the Conservatives could do nothing but go through the motions helplessly as the sole minority opposition party.

This is an usurpation of power because Canadians did not agree to handing a majority mandate to a party that did not exist on October 14, 2008.

It’s one thing to give the opposition parties a chance to bring down the government. That is certainly constitutional. It’s another to give them a chance to rule. And that rule is even more undemocratic when you consider how much it alienates every province west of Ontario. If the East wants to drag down the West into a recession by forcing us to bail out labour unions and implementing “stimulus” plans of $30 billion that we have no chance of voting down, there’s absolutely nothing democratic about that either.

When I considered the possibility of a coalition government, all I had considered was whether they had the constitutional authority to do so. What I had not considered is the fact that this isn’t just a changing of hands of a minority government, but the removal of the democratic process by eliminating the Conservative party’s chance to vote down damaging legislation. There is now no way I could possibly endorse this.

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Western Anger And Panic Sets In

I’ve blustered on at length about the “coalition” tonight as it is. Before bed I leave you with some very interesting indications that Western Canada is not going to take the expropriation of Western Canadian wealth and prosperity to bailout Ontario Labour Unions lightly.

Catprint in the Mash:

It’s time to start talking about separation. It’s time to stop playing games with the vote. It’s fairly obvious now that ‘official’ Central Canada is scared shit-less about the West. They have no answer to our power, our rise, our destiny. They will try and tame us . . . again. We’ll probably meekly defer, again. Bend over, it really doesn’t hurt.

Did you hear them today? Kyoto is back on the table. “Pre-1990 levels of CO2.” That’s really gonna help us here in the West. It isn’t enough that the eastern bastard fucks steal the only voice we’ve had in what they so nicely call “our country”, but their representatives are intent on killing our economy too?

And I say no. No more, not again, not ever.

Western Canada forever.

Needless to say, a rather partisan diatribe from Conservative radio host Charles Adler on the Corus network, but of definite interest. This is what many western Canadians are likely thinking:

Imagine the reaction in Western Canada if a coup led by the the Toronto based NDP of Jack Layton and Quebec separatists manages to succeed and in doing so, immediately does damage to their number one economic target the ENERGY industry. Does anyone doubt that the pols in the east who want to hit the Conservatives will, if given power, hit the energy industry? They can do with carbon taxes and other schemes designed to attack Western Canadian wealth. These sheep herders know that the flames of Western Separatism will immediately be ignited and how could that possibly damage the fortunes of Quebec Separatism? A growing western separatist movement is Quebec sovereignty’s best friend.

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The Beat Goes On

I know I’m rather flogging this horse rather hard, but what else is a political blogger to do during one of most interesting times in Canadian history? I may be non-partisan, but I did vote Conservative in the last election, and for a good reason. I felt they were the best party capable of leading us through this next stage of the economic downturn. And I still do. Unfortunately a whole lot of other people disagree. That’s fine. I respect that, because while there’s a lot of people who think this is undemocratic, the fact is that it’s not like it’s far beyond what the Conservatives would be willing to try themselves if this were year 16 of Liberal rule. Desperate times have called for desperate measures, [and let us not quibble here, this is a desperate move] and Canadians have gone with Team Desperate. As Olaf opines:

Whatever, Liberals, far be it for me to give advice to people who won’t listen and who I am genetically programmed to despise, but what the hell are you thinking? Governing during a recession is no fun. Ask Bob Rae, who is fortunately in your caucus all of a sudden. It’s hard with a majority government, let alone an extremely small minority coalition haphazardly cobbled together over the weekend. You really, really don’t want to take over a government now, especially not with Santa Jack as a backseat driver, begging you to pull over the sleigh at every conceivable spending opportunity.

But I digress.

What is important is to assess in the next week exactly what the spending plans are for Canada’s New Opposition. For that we have only rumours, hearsay, and conjecture. As Lionel Hutz would say, those are “kinds” of evidence:

The Liberals and NDP have agreed to a $30-billion stimulus package as part of a tentative coalition deal to oust the Harper government.

A senior Liberal source says the deal does not include any repeal of corporate tax cuts as the NDP demanded in the election campaign.

The source says it does involve an economic advisory panel of experts, including Paul Martin, John Manley, Frank McKenna, and Roy Romanow.

NDP adviser Ed Broadbent says the deal will include substantial aid to the troubled auto and forestry industries.

The NDP would get 25 per cent of the seats in a new coalition cabinet under the arrangement.

If all opposition parites sign off on the agreement, the next step is for the opposition to vote down the government and ask Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean to let them form a new administration.

I like how much information is contained in that tiny article. I like how these economic experts and advisers include former leaders of the NDP and Liberals. It really shows you how far forward the opposition has “progressed” in their progressive thinking, donchyaknow. What is of particular importance is the signal that it would appear Big Labour has had a significant hand in getting ol’ Ed Broadbent to go to bat for the troubled auto sector and give them the tried, tested, and true bailout.

Because nothing says fiscal responsibility like rewarding car companies that have incompetently run their businesses into the ground at every given opportunity in order to save jobs in the province of Ontario [okay, so forestry helps B.C., I admit that]. And the fact there seems to be no indication of repealing tax cuts to corporations [yet], whatever Bob Rae seems to contradict from his interviews, is news worthy of a breath of relief.

But as Olaf says, whatever. If the opposition wants to commandeer the ship and steer it precipitously close towards dangerous objects, I won’t try and stop them. But I will be standing on the bow, probably not quite as spectacularly as Leo DiCaprio, but certainly shouting from my blogging pulpit now and then: “LOOK OUT FOR THE GODDAMNED ICEBERG!”

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So Where Do We Go From Here?

If Stephen Harper is gone by next week and the coalition government takes power [I'm not really sure when all of this is supposed to take place], we need to address the kind of damage that the new government could deal Canadians. I know many people still want to fight and protest and hope against hope, but it looks like it’s pretty much all over but the crying and gnashing of teeth. What is more important is to assess what we stand to lose by this strange turn of events that will send Stephane Dion to the seat of power.

For me, I don’t think we’re losing a “conservative” government in the conventional sense. Stephen Harper was already offside with a number of conservatives in the way he handled his government, and it seems a shame to be defeated even while making desperate concessions. Many conservatives felt, quite rightly, that it would be noble to fall on their sword while defending the economic update and standing up for conservatism and the principles thereof. Of course there are plenty of people who disagree with me [and bless them, they sure do have a lot of fight left in them], and believe Stephen Harper has worked toward Conservative principles.

The paying down of the debt and the fiscally conservative economic update [some would call an "empty" stimulus] gave us some glimpse as to what could be achieved if Canadians weren’t ready to cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war just because a government doesn’t offer a giant bundle of money and beg people to spend it. It’s true also that he recognized the important of no deficits, and taking realistic approaches to the environment. Stephen Harper will be recognized for his leadership, too, in amalgamating the right and bringing about an inclusive Conservative Party.

But that, too, may have been part of the problem. The Conservatives, in their attempt to be all things to all men, ended up becoming the Liberal party. Their year-over-year spending increases were staggering, and despite what you think, it didn’t all go to the military or infrastructure [but the money for Afghanistan was well spent]. And no more damning an indication of this is the fact that we can’t even point to what Stephen Harper has built with all that money in all that time in power:

We should all look at the destruction this slopping cash around like a drunken sailor in port after a year at sea has created. Had we actually built something permanent with that money — some $40,000,000,000.00 over three years — perhaps there would be no issue. Forty billion dollars would buy a lot: it would buy a fair bit of new high-speed electrified rail line on key transportation corridors; it would buy a fair bit of rapid transit and interurban transit for our metropolitan areas; it would buy a host of other and useful things for the future. Alas, what we got were a basket of slops — some here, some there, a handout for this and a package for that — instead of anything that represented stewardship of the country for the future.

But now that I’ve thoroughly dumped on the Conservatives for not living up to my expectations in a minority government, I will throw out a sympathetic bone. I do concede that much of what the Conservatives did was to strengthen their grip on power with the intent to not necessarily implement strictly Conservative ideals, but to keep the grubby mittens of these guys out of the kitty. And for all of my talk about the failings of Harper and the Conservatives, I will tell you the truth.

It does scare me to think that the coalition government will dump $30 billion, or one third the annual government spending budget, into some kind of “stimulus package”, and until I know exactly what pragmatic and “stimulating” areas of the economy that the money will go, I will assume it is going to rainbows and moonbeams and leprechauns. Worse yet, the fiscal conservative in me lives in absolute mortal terror of the idea of the NDP pushing through $50 billion in tax cut repeals, thus ending forever any silly idea of Canada avoiding a full-blown no-holds-barred batten-down-the-hatches depression.

RELATED

Victor Wong: The BQ commit in writing to propping up the coalition until June 30, 2010

Roger Gibbins: Is there a third option? Can Governor-General Michaelle Jean just “say no”?

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Why Accepting Defeat Is Hard To Do

I’ve had a few critics telling me that I’m basically being a big ol’ sourpuss for not accepting the perfectly constitutional coalition government of the NDP, Liberals and their Bloc separatist cheerleaders. Yes, I know it’s not a “coup d’état”, or a revolution, or anything that is outside of the rules of the game. But it does feel a little bit like we, the people who voted Conservative in the last election were cheated. It’s almost like going to the playoffs, and while your team rolls over the Leafs, Senators, and Canadiens en route to winning the Cup, the defeated teams go to the commissioner and form the winning team on the basis that they scored more goals.

The fact is that in the last election the public showed quite clearly that they had renewed their interest in a stronger Conservative minority government with 19 more seats, while the Liberals were punished for the perception of weak leadership with a reduced presence in Parliament by 26 seats. The gap between the two parties grew, therefore, by fully 45 seats and 5.35% of the popular vote. So when people argue that only 37.63% of Canadians voted for a Conservative Prime Minister, only 26.24% of Canadians wanted a Liberal one. And that seems to be what we’re ending up with:

In a historic political move, the leaders of the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc Quebecois signed a formal agreement Monday to co-operate as a coalition government for at least 18 months.

“I’m pleased to announce we are ready to form a government,” said Dion, adding that the new government will govern “effectively, prudently, promptly and competently address these critical economic times.”

Dion said the new coalition will include a pared-down cabinet with 24 ministers plus the prime minister. Six of those spots will come from the NDP.

[...]

The announcement comes only hours after the three Liberal leadership contenders said they would support Dion as the leader of a new government coalition with the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois.

There’s even more evidence that, even from Liberal party supporters and voters, Stephane Dion has the approval of only 11% of this nation to govern. That is a staggeringly low number for a man who will be sworn in as our Prime Minister. In a sense, because Stephane Dion was rejected so resoundingly by Canadians, and because he was defeated so strongly by the Conservatives, in effect giving the Liberals their worst result in the party’s history in over 100 years, it seems insane to think he will be our nation’s leader until May, when a new Liberal leader is chosen. It is this one aspect of the coalition that I think leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

But enough sour grapes. My critics have called me out on whether I’m non-partisan or not, so here it is. I welcome the new government in their effort to make Canadian history by somehow coalescing a seemingly impossible dream of “uniting the left” in order to bring forward plans for the economy in light of turbulent economic times. I mused on this, prophetically it seems, October 4 when I penned the following:

Of course, once the dust has settled and the Conservatives are given a renewed mandate, I think talk of a “unite the left” may appeal to those who want to bolster the voting chances of the divided left who are currently dispersed among the NDP, Liberals, Green, and Bloc Quebecois. Divided, they give the Harper Conservatives a possible 40% majority rule. But united under a new banner from elements of the NDP, Greens, and Liberals, the “left” could certainly pose a strong candidacy for upwards of 40-50 percent of the popular vote.

God damn it, I hate being right.

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