The Proverbial Expletive Hits The Fan

The Conservatives have managed to remain like teflon in the face of previous scandal allegations, but here’s a potential new one. The allegation out of the NDP camp is that the Conservatives secretly listened in and taped a private NDP caucus conference call in which Jack Layton makes some very candid indications he is fully willing and looking forward to a long-lasting coalition government. The Conservatives have issued a statement saying that they were invited to the conference call, which is the sole reason I’m withholding any judgment as of yet. If they were indeed invited, even by accident, then that changes everything. But if they did secretly and without consent tape a private NDP meeting… well, let’s just say there is a “gate” worthy of the nickname.

Aside from ethics of what has been done, and I think it’s pretty obvious that the public nor the Conservatives were meant to hear this, the transcript from Kady O’Malley is pretty interesting to read through. Make no mistake though: whether this was an honest mistake and the Conservatives really did get invited, this will absolutely send the progressive left bonkers. No doubt there can be heard the sound of thousands of fingers furiously pounding their outrage out on the keyboard of the left side of the blogosphere as we speak.

Partials of Jack Layton’s talk:

So, an update on where we are, the, uh, we’re in the middle of a very historic time, and we’re playing a key role in it, in some ways a catalytic role actually, because as we think back, we’ll realize that nobody really imagined that it would be possible for the Bloc Quebecois, the Liberal party of Canada ever to enter into any kind of a discussion around the future of the country and it turned out that we were the glue, and spotted and prepared for the opportunity, and had taken the steps that were required so that when that opportunity arose, which was when Mr. Harper made his disastrous strategic error, by not providing stimulus to the economy, and instead playing political games, we were able to move, and things began to move very quickly, however, many obstacles remain in our way, and so we’re in a real battle now.

[...]

What we really want is just to get Harper out and get the new group in because it’s going to be a hell of a lot better for everything we believe in, correct? Correct. So let’s stay on that track, and not start debating whether or not it’s twenty five percent change or fifteen percent change over here, let’s get them out, on the basis of unity not the basis of division. Somebody asked about Bill Casey, absolutely, in the game, uh, on confidentiality, we now have to get out and defend the idea of the coalition.

[...]

The coalition for Canada, I love the idea, it could be a deal-breaker for the Bloc (laughter) so if we don’t go, we call it “The Coalition for Canada and Quebec,” (lots of laughter).

It seems the NDP is on board here at any price. At any rate, this becomes very interesting because the Conservatives are dangerously close to losing power, and have begun angering even their own loyal supporters with more solicitations and desperate pleas for help [how is more money going to help out in stopping this "coup"?]. Now, since this transcript was leaked to the media by the Conservatives deliberately, they must not have calculated that they would be accused of having listened in on a private meeting, so I am leaning toward this having been an error on the part of the NDP. But I do not think the Conservatives calculated how bad a backlash it could have on their reputation, even if as I say, they were accidentally invited.

Afterthought

I realized I hadn’t made any actual commentary on what I think about the comments made by Jack Layton and the meeting in general. I think this definitively shows that the NDP and the Bloc are interested in undermining the government by any means necessary, and the deals that have been apparently made a long time ago show that they have been preparing for such an eventuality regardless of what the Conservatives offered on their economic update.

In other words, as Jack Layton himself says, he knew the Conservatives were going to make a “disastrous strategic error” eventually, and this has been the planned response. This is important to note, since many progressives actually believe the coalition plan has been brought about by the economic update, when it has in fact been a contingency plan all along.

A Shot Across The Bow

Publius: “This current crisis has shown, if nothing else, how desperate and disoriented the Liberals have become.”

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Canadian Blog Awards Round 2

Greetings fellow internet addicts. As I sit here shaking from the alcoholic imbibing of last night’s Christmas Party, I see I have made it into round 2 of the Best Non-Partisan Blog category for the Canadian Blog Awards. Thanks to all who voted for me in Round 1! Now I’m up against ridiculously talented competition such as Paul Wells, James Bow, and the teams of Stageleft and Galloping Beaver, not to mention last year’s incumbent Nunc Scio. But if it isn’t too much trouble, now that you’ve started a good thing, let’s finish it shall we? Vote Unambig in round 2!

Okay, all begging and pleading aside, we can see the finalists for other categories now as well. Here’s a few of my own recommendations:

Best Blog

I have to be honest with you, I haven’t read any of these blogs but I’m vaguely aware of Mike’s Bloggity Blog. See, this is why I enjoy these awards so much. Here’s 5 new blogs to check out.

Best Conservative Blog

Obviously the competition here is fierce and Kate is a behemoth in the category. But I have to give endorsement to my favourite blogger, who somehow manages to come back to blogging, like yesterday it seems, to a huge ginormous following, and belonging to no aggregate: Olaf Raskolnikov of Prairie Wrangler. Also a fantastic blog that has really, really come into it’s own as a premier Conservative blog this past year is Joanne’s Blue Like You.

Best Group Blog

While I am sorely tempted to vote for my brothers at the Broom, and make no mistake, it is an excellent group blog, it seems that the military category was dropped from the awards this year, meaning the incumbent winner goes into this one. There is no better source for Canadian military information at The Torch, and they deserve an award for the work they do each and every day.

Best Humour Blog

Hands down, the funniest site for adding levity to politics, or just poking fun at political correction: Mitchieville.

Best Political Blog

It’s too bad my personal friend Bruce didn’t make it to Round 2, and in case I haven’t plugged him enough, check out his site. I’m also a little surprised to see Nunc Scio in the finals, since he’s very apolitical to non-partisan when I read him, although he does comment on some political topics. And he is a good and interesting blogger. I’ve been reading Calgary Grit for the past week, and his is one of the better political blogs I’ve stumbled across. So I guess I don’t have an endorsement here, but they’re all good choices.

And finally…

Best Progressive Blog

Again, giving the nod to The Grit. I’m sure the others are good, but I’m a little disappointed Unrepentant Old Hippie didn’t make it. I think she’s probably the best Progressive out there for sticking to her guns and her beliefs.

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Old Hands With A Finger In The Pie

Many critics on the left have unanimously branded the Conservatives as ideological tyrants who are trying to undermine democracy by crushing their enemies ability to raise funds and effectively mount oppositional attacks. But little is being said about the opportunistic attempts of the opposition to seek their own slice of power in the hopes it will ultimately usher in their own rule. At this point it has been speculated that even if the government backs down on everything they said in the financial update motion, nothing short of completely conceding to a stimulus package and auto industry bailout will save them from being toppled and the creation of a coalition government occurring. A lot of power would then rest in the hands of Governor General Michaelle Jean, who would have to decide if the coalition government could survive the confidence of the House for a “reasonable” period of time, or about six months.

But there are some old political hands in all of this, as Jean Chretien’s spectre has risen from the political tomb in order to cancel plans to go to Florida on vacation and ensure that his political legacy is safe and sound. It is he, after all, who brought forth the controversial election subsidies that have somehow come in five short years to represent the spirit of “Canadian Democracy”. Ed Broadbent, too, has returned to guide his former party, presumably into shoring up the NDP’s best chances at getting into a federal government in quite some time. As it appears that there is a genuine interest in overthrowing Stephen Harper now, all that remains to be decided is who would lead this party of the left?

It could not be any of the Liberal leadership hopefuls, as that party has not democratically chosen a new leader yet. The Conservatives have begun campaigning against Stephane Dion again, under the fear he could take the reigns of power, a sentiment shared by many Liberals who definitively want a changing of the guard. They also feel that Mr.Dion could “queer the deal” among the coalition, and this has also necessitated Mr.Chretien’s involvement. There is also the question of policy, and while the three parties support generic principles such as economic stimulus, poverty reduction, and disastrous carbon programs, the NDP want the corporate tax cuts of $50 billion over the past 16 years of Liberal and Conservative governments rolled back. They would also likely demand Canada leave Afghanistan immediately.

Pundits say that Mr.Harper has miscalculated the kind of animosity there is for him and his party among the opposition, perhaps not believing strongly enough that there was enough in common to unite a separatist party with a centre-left party and a socialist-worker party. But there is strong evidence, too, that the Liberals have lost the support of their core, and that is a desperate attempt by the opposition to remove Harper by any means necessary. Whether that comes to fruition is entirely up to the opposition, and the constitutionality of which the Governor General must assess.

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Cons Cave, Status Quo Continues

Has Harper shown some rare conservative ideology? Or merely miscalculated on a political ploy?

Paul Wells is always right, curse him.

It is with mild disappointment that the Conservatives have caved under the enormity of a backlash against the cutting of political subsidies. That doesn’t mean they have backed down from their refusal to enter into any kind of economic stimulus package, but a key point of the motion that raised the ire appears to be going bye for now:

After 24 hours of peering into a yawning political abyss, the Harper government took a step back on Saturday, dropping a plan to kill subsidies for political parties.

“When it comes to the funding and subsidies that political parties get, we just don’t think it’s worth getting into an election on that issue,” Transport Minister John Baird said. “We won’t be proceeding.”

A spokesman for Prime Minister Stephen Harper said the government will have more to say on Sunday, suggesting there may be more further retreats in store.

The flip-flop may not be enough to soothe the opposition, which is also looking for a major package to help the troubled auto, manufacturing and forestry industries.

I wish I could say more about what has happened here, since I really believed there was some kind of master plan behind all of this, but in the end analysis it really does appear that the move was purely a political miscalculation. I won’t call it a blunder, but surely retreating from the main talking point of the motion and suggesting “further retreats” are in store is enough to embarrass even the staunchest supporter.

The worst part of it all is that fiscal conservatives, who have been waiting patiently for years for any sign whatsoever of anything remotely resembling conservative fiscal austerity, will be the most disappointed. It isn’t that we couldn’t see the political machinations as the transparent ploy that it represented. But fiscal conservatives had finally been offered something they could believe in. The election subsidies were one of Jean Chretien’s most significant amendments to party financing in Canadian history.

Canadian campaign contributions had been highly criticized prior to 2003 as being too secretive, and giving advantage to powerful organizations like unions and corporations who would compete for political favour among the various parties. Jean Chretien did bring in needed reform with Bill C-24, an Act to amend the Canada Elections Act and the Income Tax Act [Political Financing]. The bill limited corporations and unions to no more than $1,000 annually, and individuals only $5,000 [adjusted for inflation]. All of this seems reasonable and prudent, and tries to level the playing field to keep out the influence of “wealthy interests”.

But then Mr.Chretien went too far:

But, recognizing that these limits would hamper campaign fundraising ability, the bill further increased public money put toward the political process. There was now a direct subsidy given to the party. And the money given was directly tied to votes. Parties that earned more than two per cent of the vote nationally, or five per cent in a riding, would be given $1.75 (indexed for inflation) for every vote they receive. Elections would now be financed almost 90 per cent by the public.

This fundamental principle goes against the ideas behind fiscal conservatism into one in which government is decided by collectivist appropriation. There are still semblances of democracy in the concept, but rather than leaving the political power in the hands of grassroots campaigning and the raising of funds, it assumes that political parties are deserving of contributory financing as a proportion of participation in federal elections. This is contrary to the ideas behind individualistic freedoms, and goes beyond the scope of what the government is supposed to provide to a citizenry. I do not believe government exists to influence the financing of competing political organizations. The cuts to the election subsidies signaled a return to a system where political parties would be as successful as the representative support in financial donations they received, and not merely because a person exercised their political freedom to vote in a free election.

By reneging on this small conservative token offering to supporters, the party has chosen power over principle again. And while even the staunchest of Conservative Party supporters were calling for the government to back down, the battle for collectivist entitlements has won once again over the desire for smaller, more responsible government.

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Friday Photography

A few random images of haunting beauty. [Sources unknown unless otherwise indicated]

Manitoba, Canada. Photo by Norbert Rosing

Photo by Den Law Cheng Tean

Smith Rock State Park, Oregon, Photo by Don Paulson

Ragusa, Sicily

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Go West Young Man!

The Economist has a good story about Canada and the migrating GDP growth of the economy in various parts of the country. But the big story is the tanking of the Ontario economy as the Western provinces continue to slowly surge ahead. Even as separatism slumbers in Quebec, a new form of fragmentation has taken place in the west, where for once it is becoming the juggernaut of the country. As the Economist writes, the separatist issue has taken a back seat to “the new strains in sprawling Canada between three energy-rich western provinces—Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia—and the economic laggards, Quebec and Ontario.”

Even as Canada’s growth is projected somewhere around 1% next year [or 0.6% if you believe the government economic forecast], mainly on the backs of western Canada. The harmony between the east and west has been the fact that the manufacturing province of Ontario has always been fueled by the energy-rich provinces of British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. But that will no longer be the case, as Ontario slips into a very nasty recession.

Ontario’s manufacturing sector is led by the car industry, whose North American producers are being hammered. An American recession will drag down the central Canadian regions that depend on exports to their south. Some of the country’s large banks, headquartered in Ontario’s capital, Toronto, have already suffered from America’s housing and credit meltdowns.

Ontario manufacturers can no longer ride the magic carpet of a cheap Canadian dollar. In 2008 the Canadian dollar hit parity with the American dollar, then slid a bit, and will nestle in the low 80-cent range in 2009—but this is merely the gap needed to make up for a productivity level some 20% lower than in the United States.

To give credit where it is due, Ontario has always been the “cash cow” for federal equalization payments to the “have-nots”. It has always given the province a kind of self-important aura, particularly lending Toronto to the focal point of dislike. That animosity will only intensify as central Canada drags down the more recession-resistant economies of the west.

As the recession gnaws on the heels of the west, you can bet that the environmentalist cry will be drowned out by the need to continue producing much-needed energy for the rest of the country. As the west changes from being the gasoline for the engine of central Canada to becoming the powerful engine themselves, the last thing they will want is anything that curbs the energy commodities that sustain them. This means that political parties preaching carbon taxes, cap and trade, or environmental restrictions, and this includes the federal Conservatives, will likely be shunned. If Canada is to rely on the west during the next few years of difficulty, the west is going to demand to be treated just like the new “centre of the Universe” deserves.

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Religious Nutbars Stay Away From Vancouver

We all know the notorious Westboro Church and their infamous and insane leader Pastor Fred Phelps who seems to pretty much hate everybody in the entire world. He and his “church” go to the funerals of dead soldiers to protest them, with signs saying “God hates soldiers” and “Soldiers are going to hell”. This church is pretty much the most hated group in America, and most recently tried to cross into Canada to protest the funeral of Tim McLean who was beheaded on a Greyhound bus by Vince Li. At the time the church released the statement that:

“(His death was) supremely unemotional. You got God shaking in rage. There is no emotional component … He was a rebel against God. He was taught to be a rebel by his parents. He came from a rebel country … They brought this wrath upon his head. And it sucks to be him and it sucks to be them,” Phelps-Roper said.

Meanwhile the gay community in Vancouver was expecting this bigoted mess of delusional fanatics to show up as they follow the “Laramie Project”, a play about a gay man, 21-year-old Matthew Sheppard, who was murdered in Wyoming a decade ago. The Church has showed up wherever the play is put on, protesting that homosexuals will go to hell, and holding signs that read “God hates Fags”.

In response, the citizens of Vancouver rallied together on Commercial drive to hold an anti-anti-gay rally [yes, a double negative] in support of both the play and to oppose bigotry against homosexuals in general. In the driving rain at least a hundred are said to have attended, but the Westboro church did not show.

What I can’t understand is why they let these people across the border at all. We don’t want or need their idiocy up here. There’s a limitation to free speech, in that we don’t have to go out of our way to import hatred from foreign nations. I’m an atheist myself, but I have to believe that if at the very end of it all there really is a hell, the Westboro congregation will get front row seats in it.

The Laramie Project is currently playing at the Havana Café on Commercial Drive in Vancouver.

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I Am Completely Flummoxed

I want to sound informed and reasonably well-read about the current constitutional crisis, but I have a confession to make: I have no idea what’s really going on. And I suspect neither do many others. On either side of the partisan aisles we hear repetitions of party lines. Dion and the “coalition of the willing” are usurping unelected power and mulling over the prospect of an “unholy alliance” with the separatist Bloc. Harper has jumped the shark and revealed his hidden agenda, and is planning the destruction of Canadian democracy as we know it.

I’m with Calgary Grit. “WHAT THE @#&! IS GOING ON HERE??!!?!?!?”

In truth, while we give credit to Harper’s Machiavellian play, it is a fact that the opposition are not exactly innocent bystanders in this game. You can bet that they, like the Conservative Party, are conniving in every way possible some kind of plan in which they can take this turn of events and make it into a coup for their own party. Doubtless the Liberal-Bloc-NDP coalition would provide some personal self-interest for each party, apart from the obvious drawbacks.

The Liberals likely believe this is the chance they have to “lead” Canadians away from the Conservative rule, if only to distinguish themselves in the coalition government. But make no mistake: any long-term alliance with the NDP is an impossibility. The NDP similarly could see short-term gains in taking shared power for a while, even if the Conservatives and Bloc would continue to vote down their motions. And the Bloc? Well, the Bloc might just do it for the disruption of the government and to save their election subsidies. Their ultimate goal of an independent Quebec remains undeterred by joining into the sharing of the government they are trying to secede from.

Aaron Wherry of Macleans and Dr.Dawg suggests Harper has blundered, the latter calling it a “zugzwang”, a chessical term for when any move an opponent makes will lose the game for him. But I disagree. This is giving far too little credit to the Conservative braintrust, which has been anything but impatient or impetuous in their slow and gradual accruing of power.

I don’t pretend to know all the motives of the financial update motion. But I do know there is more to Harper than meets the eye. This recent stroke proves exactly that, by largely polarizing Canadians at a time when many of them might have become united in resentment of a motion that doesn’t include a stimulus package. Mr.Harper has turned the attention of Canadians not to the fiscal uncertainty of the years ahead, but the sore point of political “entitlements” and another notch in the legacy of Jean Chretien’s bloated government programs. In that sense, this move has been anything but a blunder.

By the by

Largely unrelated, but there’s less than 24 hours to vote for me in the first round of the Canadian Blog Awards. I have no illusions of winning the best Conservative [Small Dead Animals] or Best Blog awards, but if it isn’t too much trouble, how about casting your vote for Best Non-partisan blog? There’s a little karma in it for you if you lean left, and if you lean right there’s a tax credit*.

Vote now!

* – Tax credit may not really exist.

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Who Is Going To Back Down?

Prime Minister Dion and his right hand Jack?

It’s difficult to make sense of what has happened today, as a flurry of rumours and media circus has churned out hundreds of articles all across Canada about it. I’m almost afraid to look at my SharpReader RSS program for fear Macleans Magazine will show 31 of 31 unread posts. I believe the latest talk is that any confidence vote on the Conservative economic update will be delayed until December 8 in the wake of a massive, and I mean truly massive uproar from “the left”.

Stephen Harper calls the grumbling “a backroom deal [for Stephane Dion] to take power without the consent of voters.” Pundits have suggested the opposition could go to the Governor General and demand that she consent to forming a coalition government between the NDP, Liberals, and Bloc, a sort of “united left” against Stephen Harper. The NDP and Bloc has tentatively agreed to admit to this sort of insane idea, backing the unelected Dion to power. Of interest, it would likely be the first time in Canadian history that a man polling a dismal 13% among voters who believe he would make the “best Prime Minister” for Canada, would fill that role.

It appears that the Conservatives are backing down for the moment, at least, by dropping the party-funding cuts from the motion, but the party has since said they were never intended as part of the economic update, and will be a separate motion altogether. “The portion dealing with political subsidies … will be part of a later bill,” said Kory Teneycke. Whatever is happening, I surely can’t add anything more than what hundreds of pundits have already said. But some Conservatives, like Olaf, are even hoping that Stephen Harper’s party will fall:

Unfortunately, it looks like Harper is backing down from his hitherto awesome gambit, which sucks and is boring. What he should have done was allowed his government to fall, allowed the NDP and the Liberals to form a coalition government, sat back and watch as they bicker, quibble, quarrel and squabble (in that order) and then take all the heat for the financial shitstorm over the next year or so. Then, Harper could have ridden onto Parliament Hill on his trusty white steed and smashed them from behind with his lance. And he would say “see what happens when I’m not around?”

The gong show of a coalition government would be a spectacle to behold indeed. One thing is for certain: Canadian politics just went from a whole lot of boring to a whole bunch of interesting in less than 48 hours.

Around the blogs

Publius: “No doubt Canadians will be keen to see the party they voted into the office – if only with a plurality – be removed by parliamentary coup d’etat by three parties they didn’t vote into office.”

Trusty Tory: “[...]the fact that the Liberals are perfectly willing to give the Bloc Quebecois a hold on Canadian power completely blows my mind.”

Clear Conservative Thought: “Nothing says undemocratic more than seizing control of a government that you were not elected to run.”

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The Unification Of "The Left"

Further to this article, I followed my ideological ally Olaf intrepidly into the Progressive side of the blogosphere in curiosity of finding out how our left-leaning friends feel about such an idea.

Not far down the ranks of Progressive Bloggers is an article that calls for “Canadians for a Progressive Coalition“. And so it begins. We are no longer a diverse array of Canadians with differing views and opinions and parties, but slowly polarizing into the bi-partisan split of the American kind of politics. Progressives against Conservatives. The Huffington Post against Fox News.

Hope springs eternal Liberal blogger Scott Tribe seems quite agreeable to a coalition government:

Some people say coalition government. I think the way to go with this would be the accord which the Liberals and NDP did in Ontario in 1985. I think the basis of this would have to be the NDP and Liberals parties having to agree to certain legislative objectives, and then hope the BQ would support them on an issue by issue basis.

Not every Progressive thinks it’s such a peachy idea. Chet Scoville thinks the double threat of the Bloc going against the coalition and Governor General Michaelle Jean refusing will make it impossible. But if we look at the Bloc, self-interest has always governed their decisions, and few self-serving interests are more important than securing and maintaining 86% of their electoral stipend.

This NDP blogger thinks it’s only worthwhile if the NDP get cabinet positions to push through NDP policy, but ultimately doesn’t believe Stephen Harper will push the issue. Paul Graham, like many of the other progressives, seems to think it has a good chance. The progressives are more united in dislike for Stephen Harper than they are separated by ideology.

The examples go on and on and on, even among the big dawgs. As Troy writes on his blog,
“[Harper has] managed to unite the fractured left… in one day. That’s absolute genius.”

The final word goes to Impolitical, who thinks an election is unlikely, but not impossible:

If there is a public expression of a coalition or a Liberal minority government agreed to as a result of a governing plan of some sort articulated by the opposition parties, then a practical alternative presents itself. Throw in the special circumstances of a recession and the present economic challenges, and a second $300 million election within months being requested by Mr. Harper…there’s a good argument for you.

Related Conservative Reaction

Trusty Tory: “This is a public pity party.

Not only that, but it’s proof positive that the Opposition could care less about the stability of the country. This would create unnecessary crisis to people investing in Canada. We just had an election. Talks of a coup d’etat would completely shatter any ounce of consumer confidence left in this country.”

Conservative Reporter: “They have focused on one aspect of the fiscal cuts and are screaming about it. That one aspect is to cut off all money paid to the party that originates from taxpayers money. They have stepped into their sandboxes and are plotting. Their aim is to destroy what Canadians just mandated and either force an election or form a coalition government that no Canadian wants.”

Phantom Observer: “Second, any talk of “coalition” runs smack dab into one mathematical fact: in order to be stable, there has to be true cooperation among all Opposition parties, and that means an accommodation with the Bloc. Which raises the question: what, if anything, could the Liberals offer the Bloc in exchange for an undertaking not to bring down the government? And what does the sovereigntist-minded Bloc gain, given that its more hardcore membership is out to prove that federalism in its current form (and as represented by the other parties) doesn’t work to Quebec’s ultimate advantage?“

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